The Dark Side of China’s Covid-19 Success: Experts Suspect Undercounting of Deaths
Despite lifting all its Covid-19 restrictions, China's total death toll from the virus remains strikingly low, leading to suspicions of underreporting.
Researchers estimate that China's Covid-19 wave may have killed between a million and 1.5 million people, with undercounting of deaths a particular concern due to the absence of data on total infections and quarterly cremations.
China's narrow definition of what counts as a Covid-19 death, which only includes deaths from respiratory failure, is one of the main reasons for the undercounting.
Official data on Covid-19 deaths in China excludes those who died outside hospitals due to Covid-19-related problems, with only around one-fifth of all deaths occurring in hospitals.
Researchers have used different approaches to estimate the number of Covid-19 deaths in China, with estimates ranging from 970,000 to 1.6 million.
One estimate predicts that repealing the "zero Covid" policy would likely overwhelm the healthcare system and result in an estimated 1.6 million deaths.
Another estimate predicts a surge that might kill about 970,000 people by the end of January, using increased travel during China's Lunar New Year to predict the spread of the virus.
The difference between China's official figures and the estimates is drastic, with official figures showing the lowest death rate per capita of any other major country over the entirety of the pandemic.
Without reliable data from China, researchers' estimates remain informed guesses, making it difficult to assess the true impact of Covid-19 in the country.
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