Rahul Somvanshi
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s latest 5-year evaluation of Mexican wolf recovery efforts reveals a complex picture of conservation success in the United States coupled with concerning setbacks in Mexico. While the U.S. population has exceeded interim recovery targets, the situation south of the border raises questions about the long-term viability of this endangered subspecies.
U.S. Population Surpasses Targets
By the end of 2023, at least 257 wolves were spotted in the wild in the United States. By the third quarter of 2024, New Mexico reported 38 wolf packs and 144 wild wolves in the state. This marks the eighth consecutive year of population growth, surpassing the interim abundance target of 145 wolves set for the United States.
Brady McGee, Mexican Wolf Recovery Coordinator for the Fish and Wildlife Service, notes, “This progress report shows we are ahead of where we anticipated being in achieving our recovery goals in the United States for Mexican wolves.”
Genetic Success and Breeding Program
Both U.S. and Mexican populations have retained over 90% of the captive population’s gene diversity – a remarkable achievement considering the program started with just seven wolves in the 1970s. Jim deVos, Arizona Game and Fish Department Mexican Wolf Recovery Coordinator, states, “Given the founding population of seven Mexican wolves, the ability to demonstrate such a high retention rate for gene diversity and other associated genetic measures is a paramount recovery success.”
Critical Concerns in Mexico
Despite progress in the U.S., conservation groups express serious concerns about the Mexican population. “Despite encouraging growth in the United States, the truth is, Mexico remains a death trap for the Mexican gray wolf,” says Bryan Bird, Southwest Director for Defenders of Wildlife. “Relying on our southern neighbor – with far less resources and marginal habitat – is a dangerous gamble.”
The evaluation reveals that in 2022, Mexico observed only 35 wolves, falling significantly short of its interim target of 100. Chris Smith, wildlife program director for WildEarth Guardians, puts it bluntly: “There is no functional wolf population in Mexico; there may be no wolves in Mexico at all.”
Human-Wildlife Conflict and Mortality
Human-caused mortality remains the primary threat to Mexican wolves. Between 2017 and 2022, 61 wolf mortalities in the U.S. were suspected to be human-caused, yet only two federal prosecutions occurred, with three individuals paying fines.
The livestock impact continues to be a concern. In New Mexico alone, Mexican wolves killed 67 livestock in the first nine months of 2024, with 10 additional kills and one injury in the third quarter.
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Geographic Limitations and Recovery Strategy
Current recovery efforts focus within the Mexican Wolf Experimental Population Area (MWEPA), bounded by Interstate 40 to the north. Claire Musser, executive director of the Grand Canyon Wolf Recovery Project, argues, “Scientific research—and the wolves themselves—make it clear that the current strategy limits recovery rather than facilitates it.”
Scientists recommend establishing three subpopulations of at least 200 wolves each, totaling a minimum of 750 wolves across the southwestern United States, including the Grand Canyon Ecoregion and Southern Rockies.
Legal Protection and Enforcement
Mexican gray wolves remain protected under the Endangered Species Act. Violations can result in criminal penalties of up to $50,000 and one year in jail, plus potential civil penalties of up to $25,000. A $105,000 reward fund exists for information about illegal killings.
The evaluation acknowledges three primary risks to recovery: limited genetic diversity, human-caused deaths, and population size fluctuations. As Cyndi Tuell from Western Watersheds Project observes, “For Lobo recovery to be successful, we need at least three viable subpopulations in suitable habitat in the U.S. as well, but we have only one.”
