Sunita Somvanshi
In the fourth week of August, prices in most European electricity markets went down compared to the previous week. The MIBEL markets in Spain and Portugal saw increases of 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively. The Italian IPEX market had the smallest decrease at 5.3%, while the Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries had the largest drop at 65%. Other markets, such as the UK and the Dutch EPEX SPOT market, also experienced significant decreases, with the UK falling by around 29% and the N2EX market in the Netherlands dropping by 39%.
Weekly averages fell below €65/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Spanish, Portuguese, and Italian markets were exceptions, with averages of €82.34/MWh, €82.60/MWh, and €123.31/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market recorded the lowest weekly average at €7.32/MWh. Whereas other markets ranged between €43.45/MWh in France and €60.97/MWh in Germany.
Negative prices were observed in European markets on August 25th, Sunday, with the Italian market remaining an exception. Other markets, including German, Belgian, French, Dutch, and Nordic, are recording negative trends since 24th August. The Dutch market in particular showed the lowest hourly price standing at €44.92/MWh from 2 pm to 3 pm, whereas the British market fell three days consecutively since 21st August.
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Compared to the previous week, solar power generation decreased in most main European electricity markets around August 19th, with Portuguese and Spanish markets also facing declines at 3.4% and 3.3%, respectively, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive week. The German market also fell for the third week consecutively, with the smallest drop of 1.9%. Contrastingly, solar production increased in the French and Italian markets by 14% and 3.3%, respectively.
Wind energy production saw a surge in most main European markets during the week of August 19. The German market experienced the largest increase at 161%, followed by the French and Italian markets with increases of 76% and 21%, respectively. The Spanish market had the smallest increase at 2.3%, while the Portuguese market was the exception with a 15% decrease in wind production.
During the weekend, daily wind production reached notable levels. On Friday, August 23, the German market generated 622 GWh, a value not seen since mid-April. On Saturday, August 24, the French market generated 181 GWh, the highest daily production since June 15. On Sunday, August 25, the Spanish market recorded 188 GWh, the highest production since July 15.
Electricity demand in the main European electricity markets behaved heterogeneously in the week of August 19. In countries where August 15 was a holiday, electricity demand increased. The Spanish market recorded the largest increase at 6.0%, and the Italian market saw an increase of 3.4%. Demand in the Belgian and French markets increased by 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively. The Portuguese market was an exception, as demand continued to fall for the fourth consecutive week by 0.9%. In other markets, demand decreased, reversing the previous week’s upward trend. The Dutch market recorded the largest drop at 8.6%, and the British market registered a decline of 4.1%.
Average temperatures fell in all mentioned countries during the fourth week of August. The decreases ranged from 3.3°C in Germany to 0.4°C in Spain.
For the week of August 26, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting predicts a rise in solar production in Germany, with continued declines expected in Spain and Italy. Wind production is forecast to decrease in Germany, France, and the Iberian Peninsula, except for Italy, where it will continue to rise. Demand is projected to increase in Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, while decreasing in Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Great Britain.
The trends in most European markets were driven by a spike in wind production, along with drops in demand and average temperatures. The Iberian market was an exception, with prices remaining above €90/MWh for most of the week due to lower solar production in Spain and Portugal and lower wind production in Portugal. TTF gas futures prices remained stable, below €40/MWh.
