China’s $137B Yarlung Tsangpo Dam Sparks India, Bangladesh Concerns

China announced plans in December 2024 to build a massive hydropower project on Tibet’s Yarlung Tsangpo river. The project would generate three times more electricity than the world’s current largest dam, raising serious questions about water security and environmental impacts downstream in India and Bangladesh.

The project targets the dramatic “Great Bend” where the river drops 2,000 meters over just 50 kilometers before entering India. Chinese engineers plan to drill multiple 20-kilometer tunnels through Namcha Barwa mountain to divert half the river’s flow. The project aims to produce 60 gigawatts of power and approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, with an estimated price tag exceeding $137 billion.

“The project could severely affect water availability, ecology, and livelihoods downstream in India and Bangladesh,” warned Union Minister of State for Environment Kirti Vardhan Singh. His concern reflects growing anxiety about China’s expanding control over rivers that flow into neighboring countries.

The Siang river, as the Yarlung Tsangpo is known when it enters India’s Arunachal Pradesh, contributes up to one-third of the water in the mighty Brahmaputra. When the dam diverts 2,000 cubic meters of water per second for power generation, downstream communities could face significant impacts.

India fears China might weaponize water by causing floods during monsoons or holding back water during dry periods. During non-monsoon periods, the situation could become dangerous. If China holds water to fill reservoirs, a 150-kilometer stretch from the India-China border to the Siyom river confluence could experience drought conditions. Local fishing and farming communities depend on consistent river flows for their livelihoods.

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The project’s location adds another serious risk factor. The area sits in a highly active earthquake zone. In 1950, an 8.7 magnitude earthquake changed river courses throughout the region. A similar event near a massive dam could lead to catastrophic failures.

India and China currently share water data during monsoon months (May 15 to October 15), but no formal water treaty exists between the nations. This data sharing has stopped during periods of political tension, including border conflicts in 2017 and 2020. A major gap exists in monitoring – no data is available for a critical 320-kilometer stretch between China’s last monitoring station and India’s first station at Tuting.

Some experts suspect China’s announcement might be testing India’s reaction. When President Hu Jintao visited Delhi in 2006, he assured India that a mega dam would not be built. Instead, the countries established an expert group to discuss flood data sharing and emergency management.

Satellite images already show preliminary Chinese activities at the Great Bend. India is exploring countermeasures, including building its own reservoirs on the Siang to store potential flood releases from China and release water during droughts.

The challenge extends beyond politics. Without transparent international cooperation, the project risks permanently altering river ecosystems that millions of people across multiple countries depend upon for food, water, and economic survival.