Govind Tekale
A second polar vortex collapse is expected to occur in mid-March, potentially bringing severe winter weather across the United States and Canada. This follows an earlier collapse in February that caused freezing conditions and widespread travel disruptions throughout North America.
What is happening?
The upcoming collapse involves sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) — when temperatures between 10 and 50 kilometers above Earth’s surface rise by up to 50 degrees in just two days. This rapid warming weakens the polar vortex, a large area of low pressure and cold air that normally circulates around the Earth’s poles.
“We are predicting a displacement of the polar vortex on the Europe and eastern Canada side of the polar,” AccuWeather’s Lead Meteorologist Paul Pastelok told The Independent.
Meteorologists note that when the polar vortex weakens, it allows frigid Arctic air to spill southward into lower latitudes using Earth’s jet stream — the narrow bands of wind 8 to 11 kilometers above the surface.
“When the Polar Vortex is disrupted — whether stretched, displaced, or split — it can, but does not always, impact this polar jet stream,” Pastelok explained.
Potential impacts
The collapse could lead to:
- Extreme cold waves in regions unaccustomed to such weather
- Heavy snowfall and icy conditions
- Major travel disruptions
- Possible power outages
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains that the polar vortex always exists near the North and South Poles, weakening in summer and strengthening in winter. When it weakens during winter due to sudden warming, it expands and sends cold air southward.
The impacts may extend beyond North America. The UK Met Office told The Independent: “SSWs don’t always impact our weather but if they do it can take a few weeks before impacts might be felt on the earth surface.” They added that if this happens, it “could bring colder weather to the UK” for the remainder of March.
Winter 2025 context
This winter has already been unusually cold for much of the United States. According to recent data, it was about 1.1 degrees below average across the contiguous United States — making it the coldest three-month period since the winter of 2013-2014.
The most unusually cold conditions occurred in South Dakota and in a corridor that includes several states from Illinois to Georgia, as well as parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Since the start of 2025, more than 111 million people across the United States have experienced subzero temperatures, the highest number in six years.
Despite several noteworthy winter storms, including a rare Gulf Coast snowstorm that brought a foot of snow to parts of New Orleans, snowfall was below average in 67 percent of the United States.
Current weather concerns
The week ahead already promises severe weather, with Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi under an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for potential tornadoes from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. Hail and damaging winds are expected to add to the dangerous conditions.
As a powerful midweek storm sweeps east, it will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to many states. On its backside, blizzard conditions are possible in the Plains and Midwest, including Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Meanwhile, Oncor Electric Delivery reported its staff were working around the clock to restore power to 134,217 customers suffering outages due to non-thunderstorm related wind gusts of up to 65 mph.
“The timing is uncertain for North America but could see a change in the pattern for late March into early April,” Pastelok added regarding the polar vortex collapse effects.
The National Weather Service and meteorologists are closely watching as the polar vortex situation unfolds.
FAQ:
What exactly is a polar vortex?
A polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air that circulates around the Earth’s poles. It acts like a whirlpool, trapping cold air within. This vortex is always present but strengthens in winter and weakens in summer. When disrupted, it can allow Arctic air to spill southward into regions that don’t usually experience such intense cold.
How does a polar vortex collapse affect everyday weather?
When a polar vortex collapses, it can lead to extreme cold waves, heavy snowfall, and icy conditions in regions far from the Arctic. This often results in travel disruptions and power outages, as seen with the Oncor Electric Delivery situation where they worked around the clock to restore power to over 134,000 customers. The cold can also lead to dangerous driving conditions and increased energy usage.
Is this connected to overall weather patterns?
Yes. The source materials note that the United States was part of the 8% of the planet that experienced below-average winter temperatures, while 44% experienced above-average temperatures. The polar vortex is part of a complex global weather system where conditions in one region can influence others through atmospheric connections like the jet stream.
How long will the extreme cold last?
The duration varies with each event. According to AccuWeather’s Lead Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, a complete split in the jet stream pattern could last 4-7 weeks, but a displacement (which is more likely in this case) would last less time. Effects could influence weather patterns through late March and early April.
What happened during the previous polar vortex collapse this year?
The previous polar vortex collapse in February 2025 caused freezing conditions and transport chaos across North America. It brought snow, storms, and sub-zero temperatures that impacted millions of Americans across most of the country. Since the start of 2025, more than 111 million people across the United States have experienced subzero temperatures, the highest number in six years.
Will this affect areas beyond North America?
Possibly. The UK Met Office told The Independent: “SSWs don’t always impact our weather but if they do it can take a few weeks before impacts might be felt on the earth surface.” They added that if this happens, it “could bring colder weather to the UK” for the remainder of March. The polar vortex
