Govind Tekale
New research reveals all five African subregions will exceed the Paris Agreement’s critical 1.5°C climate threshold by 2040, despite contributing less than 4% of global emissions.
Key Findings
- Africa will breach the 1.5°C limit by 2040 even under low emission scenarios
- Agriculture-based communities face the greatest impact due to climate sensitivity
- Current adaptation measures are insufficient for coming climate conditions
- Social inequalities and gender disparities will worsen with climate change
Urgent Agricultural Transition Needed
Professor Paul Mapfumo, lead author and Vice Chancellor of University of Zimbabwe, warns: “African agriculture-based livelihood systems will be invariably the most affected because of their reliance on climate-sensitive agriculture and limited adaptive capacity.”
The research team, including scientists from the International Livestock Research Institute in Kenya, calls for urgent implementation of just transition pathways that promote:
- Climate-resilient crop, livestock, and fishery systems
- Investment in agricultural science and technology
- Restoration of underutilized crop and livestock genetics
- Soil health regeneration and land restoration
- Protection of natural ecosystems
- Enhanced education and information access
Green Industrial Revolution
“Such efforts should focus on mechanising and greening Africa’s agriculture as driven by a deliberate ‘Green Industrial Revolution’ for the new normal induced by climate change,” states Professor Mapfumo.
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The framework developed by researchers offers pathways for social inclusion, community climate action capacity, and investments toward climate-resilient agriculture supporting zero poverty goals.
The study was funded by the African Group of Negotiators Experts Support (AGNES) and published in CABI Reviews on February 25, 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions
Africa is particularly vulnerable to global warming due to geographical factors and limited adaptive capacity, despite contributing only 4% of global emissions. Climate impacts are distributed unevenly across the globe, with Africa facing disproportionate effects regardless of its carbon footprint.
Farmers will face more extreme weather, irregular rainfall, longer droughts, and higher temperatures, threatening crop yields, livestock health, and food security. Agriculture-based livelihoods are especially vulnerable because they depend directly on stable climate conditions, and many farmers lack resources to implement advanced adaptation measures.
It’s developing sustainable farming systems that enhance food security and reduce poverty while lowering emissions, ensuring vulnerable communities aren’t left behind. This includes diversifying crops, adopting climate-resilient practices, restoring underutilized crop varieties, improving soil health, and creating equitable access to resources and markets.
The combination of appropriate mechanization with sustainable practices to increase agricultural productivity while reducing environmental impact. This approach integrates modern technologies with ecological farming methods, renewable energy use in agriculture, and efficient water management to develop a climate-resilient agricultural sector.
Inequalities in resource access, exclusion from decision-making, and marginalization of vulnerable groups will intensify with climate impacts. The research identifies three types of injustices: distributive (unequal sharing of climate burdens), procedural (exclusion from decision processes), and recognition (marginalization of vulnerable voices), with particularly severe effects on women and resource-poor communities.
Investment in climate-resilient agriculture, education systems redesign, ecosystem protection, agricultural innovation financing, community climate action capacity, and policies addressing social injustices. These need implementation at local, national and regional levels with particular attention to the needs of the most vulnerable populations.
