Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impact Risk Now Near Zero

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The asteroid's estimated impact risk has since dropped dramatically. NASA now calculates just a 0.28% chance.

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Since the asteroid's discovery, there has been a small possibility of impact with Earth in December 2032

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The Earth will eventually move outside of that region, and then the impact probability will drop to zero.

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At 130-300 feet wide, 2024 YR4 could release about 10 megatons of energy if it hit Earth.

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It is 15 times more powerful than the Chelyabinsk meteor that injured 1,500 people in Russia in 2013.

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Its surface reflectivity remains uncertain, which affects how sunlight pressure might alter its trajectory.

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The asteroid's exact shape also remains unknown, further complicating predictions.

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After April 2025, the asteroid will become too distant and faint for Earth-based telescopes until 2028.

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