Rahul Somvanshi
Scientists are watching a newly spotted asteroid that might come uncomfortably close to Earth in 2032. Found last December in Chile, asteroid 2024 YR4 is between 40-100 meters wide (approximately the size of a large building, as noted by Dr. Paul Chodas).
At a speed of 17 kilometers per second (38,028 miles per hour), this space rock has caught scientists‘ attention. If it hit Earth, the explosion would be the equivalent of ten megatons of TNT, as calculated by researchers. The rock would likely burst apart in the sky before reaching the ground.
There’s a 98.8% chance it will miss Earth completely. But even that 1.2% chance of impact means scientists must keep watch. “Nobody should be scared about this,” says Kelly Fast from NASA. “We can find these things, make predictions, and plan ahead.”
The last time something this size hit Earth was in 1908 when a similar asteroid exploded over Siberia. The blast flattened trees across 770 square miles (2,000 square kilometers). Bruce Betts from The Planetary Society explains: “If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and the surrounding areas.”
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The good news? Scientists have already demonstrated asteroid deflection technology. In 2022, NASA’s DART mission successfully changed the motion of a small asteroid by intentionally crashing a spacecraft into it at 13,645 miles per hour (6.1 kilometers per second).
For now, telescopes around the world are tracking 2024 YR4. The asteroid will fade from view this April but return in 2028, passing within approximately 66,000 miles of Earth, allowing scientists another chance to study it up close.
